An economist has given President Trump good news heading into the 2020 election. The economist does not foresee a recession before the 2020 election.
According to The Daily Wire:
Acknowledging that talk of a coming recession has mushroomed recently, one economics expert writing in The New York Times attempted to assuage those fears by noting that the American economic system is far more resilient than the fear-mongerers would have others believe.
Neil Irwin, a senior economics correspondent for The Upshot, starts his explanation by noting, “In August, consumer sentiment suffered its biggest drop since 2012, and Google searches for the term ‘recession’ surged to their highest levels in more than a decade.” But after pointing out that business activity has slowed and American manufacturing began shrinking in August for the first time in three years, Irwin turns positive, opining that an outright recession seems unlikely and a period of sluggish growth looks more probable.
Irwin concludes, “There are a lot of risks out there, and it makes sense for C.E.O.s and ordinary consumers to be wary of what the future could hold. But for now, a gloomy economic future remains a far-from-certain possibility.”
The Washington Post, in an article titled, “How A Recession Could Doom Trump’s 2020 Reelection,” noted that only one president since the Civil War won reelection when a recession hit in the last two years of his first term: William McKinley in 1900. The Post added, “Since then, all four presidents running for reelection who had such a recession lost: William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush. Over the same span, all 10 who have sought reelection without such a recession have won: Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt (3x), Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.”
One of the major factors pointed out by the economist is the fact that the trade war is only effecting a small percentage of the economy as a whole.