Can Kari Lake Oust Sen. Kyrsten Sinema?

Despite narrowly losing her race for Governor race in Arizona, Kari Lake may be able to beat both Ruban Gallego and Krysten Sinema in 2024. Lake lost her election by a razor-thin margin of just 17,000 votes, less than 1%, against Gov. Katie Hobbs.

According to a survey released by Blueprint Polling on January 11, the currently up-in-the-air scenario of Kari Lake choosing to run for Senate actually looks like it could shake out in her favor.

According to MSN.com:

Lake, who rumors say is considering running for the seat but has not confirmed this, polled at 36 percent, according to Blueprint, well ahead of the two rivals. Gallego trailed closely with 32 percent, while Sinema ran a distant third with 14 percent.

One in six voters polled by Blueprint was undecided about whom to vote for in a race involving the three candidates. This indecision could help Sinema hold on to her seat, according to the polling website.

The survey also found that the senator, who left the Democratic Party last month, currently gathers support from both Republicans and Democrats.

Her best chance to be reelected in 2024, according to Blueprint, “may be for the Republican party to nominate a candidate so flawed that moderate and conservative voters would abandon that person for the Independent Sinema.”

2024 Arizona Senate GE:

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Lake (R) 36%
Gallego (D) 32%
Sinema (I-inc) 14%

.@blueprintpoll, 618 V, 1/5-8https://t.co/Bd6dpts4NM

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 12, 2023

While we still have to wait on official word from Kari Lake on whether or not she’d choose to run for Senate, the early numbers show that Sinema, who left the Democratic party, has dropped like a rock in favorability. However, Sinema’s 14% needs to get divided between Lake and Gallego, if that’s who ends up running in 2024. While it’s possible that Lake may have another neck-in-neck race around the corner, everything for this potential Senate race is still up in the air, as Lake won’t make any decision about a potential 2024 Senate run until her court case for alleged flaws in the outcome of Lake’s 2022 Governor election outcome against Katie Hobbs is completed.